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2020 President · SC

East Carolina University Center for Survey Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 763 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.3% · Republican 52.03%

R+7.7

The certified result

Democrat 43.43% · Republican 55.11%

R+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.3 − 52.03 = -7.73
  2. Actual margin = 43.430 − 55.110 = -11.680
  3. Signed miss = -7.73 − (-11.680) = 3.950
  4. Absolute miss = |3.950| = 3.950

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72157, race ID 6251 (538 database).