2020 Senate · MT
Montana State University Billings · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 546 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.99% · Republican 55.01%
R+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 44.988 − 55.012 = -10.024
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-10.024) = 11.024
- Absolute miss = |11.024| = 11.024
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72162, race ID 6283 (538 database).