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2020 House · MT-1

Montana State University Billings · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 546 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.61% · Republican 56.39%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.614 − 56.386 = -12.772
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-12.772) = 11.773
  4. Absolute miss = |11.773| = 11.773

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72162, race ID 8067 (538 database).