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2020 President · AZ

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 714 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.309) = -0.309
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.309| = 0.309

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72166, race ID 6214 (538 database).