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2020 Senate · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 759 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 52.4% · Republican 42.8%

D+9.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%

D+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.4 − 42.8 = 9.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
  3. Signed miss = 9.60 − (1.685) = 7.915
  4. Absolute miss = |7.915| = 7.915

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72170, race ID 6280 (538 database).