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2020 Senate · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 649 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 42%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.50%

D+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 43.498 = 5.239
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (5.239) = -2.238
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.238| = 2.238

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72171, race ID 6281 (538 database).