2020 President · FL
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 743 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 47%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%
R+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-3.359) = 7.358
- Absolute miss = |7.358| = 7.358
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72175, race ID 6220 (538 database).