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2020 President · FL

Citizen Data · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.63% · Republican 44.74%

D+4.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.63 − 44.74 = 4.89
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 4.89 − (-3.359) = 8.248
  4. Absolute miss = |8.248| = 8.248

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72180, race ID 6220 (538 database).