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2020 President · GA

Citizen Data · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.15% · Republican 43.74%

D+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.15 − 43.74 = 4.41
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = 4.41 − (0.236) = 4.174
  4. Absolute miss = |4.174| = 4.174

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72181, race ID 6221 (538 database).