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2020 President · TX

Citizen Data · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.91% · Republican 45.02%

D+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.91 − 45.02 = 3.89
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = 3.89 − (-5.579) = 9.469
  4. Absolute miss = |9.469| = 9.469

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72186, race ID 6254 (538 database).