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2020 President · OH

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 613 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-8.032) = 6.032
  4. Absolute miss = |6.032| = 6.032

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72192, race ID 6246 (538 database).