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2020 President · AK

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 770 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 52%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.77% · Republican 52.83%

R+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.772 − 52.833 = -10.061
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-10.061) = 1.061
  4. Absolute miss = |1.061| = 1.061

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72193, race ID 6211 (538 database).