Skip to content

2020 House · FL-13

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 1,280 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54.8% · Republican 38.6%

D+16.2

The certified result

Democrat 53.04% · Republican 46.96%

D+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.8 − 38.6 = 16.20
  2. Actual margin = 53.039 − 46.959 = 6.080
  3. Signed miss = 16.20 − (6.080) = 10.120
  4. Absolute miss = |10.120| = 10.120

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72203, race ID 7928 (538 database).