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2020 President · NJ

Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 872 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 37%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.33% · Republican 41.40%

D+15.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 37 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.334 − 41.397 = 15.937
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (15.937) = 8.062
  4. Absolute miss = |8.062| = 8.062

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72205, race ID 6242 (538 database).