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2020 Senate · NJ

Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 872 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 31%

D+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.23% · Republican 40.92%

D+16.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 31 = 30.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.228 − 40.921 = 16.307
  3. Signed miss = 30.00 − (16.307) = 13.692
  4. Absolute miss = |13.692| = 13.692

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72205, race ID 6287 (538 database).