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2020 President · TX

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2020-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 873 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.579) = 4.579
  4. Absolute miss = |4.579| = 4.579

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72206, race ID 6254 (538 database).