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2020 Governor · NC

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2020-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 911 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 42%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 42 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (4.511) = 7.490
  4. Absolute miss = |7.490| = 7.490

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72207, race ID 7824 (538 database).