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2020 President · NH

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 757 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.71% · Republican 45.36%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.708 − 45.356 = 7.352
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (7.352) = 2.647
  4. Absolute miss = |2.647| = 2.647

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72208, race ID 6241 (538 database).