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2020 Senate · NH

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 757 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 38%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.64% · Republican 40.99%

D+15.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 38 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.637 − 40.988 = 15.649
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (15.649) = 3.351
  4. Absolute miss = |3.351| = 3.351

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72208, race ID 6286 (538 database).