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2020 Governor · NH

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 757 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 59%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.36% · Republican 65.13%

R+31.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 59 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.361 − 65.125 = -31.764
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-31.764) = 8.764
  4. Absolute miss = |8.764| = 8.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72208, race ID 7822 (538 database).