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2020 President · AZ

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (0.309) = -4.309
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.309| = 4.309

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72217, race ID 6214 (538 database).