2020 President · VT
co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 584 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 32%
D+30.0
The certified result
Democrat 66.09% · Republican 30.67%
D+35.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 32 = 30.00
- Actual margin = 66.086 − 30.674 = 35.412
- Signed miss = 30.00 − (35.412) = -5.413
- Absolute miss = |-5.413| = 5.413
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72218, race ID 6257 (538 database).