Skip to content

2020 President · IA

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 1,225 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 53.09%

R+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.892 − 53.089 = -8.197
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-8.197) = 7.198
  4. Absolute miss = |7.198| = 7.198

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72220, race ID 6223 (538 database).