Skip to content

2020 President · OH

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 1,186 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-8.032) = 13.032
  4. Absolute miss = |13.032| = 13.032

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72221, race ID 6246 (538 database).