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2020 President · national

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 1,500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.6% · Republican 43.5%

D+9.1

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.6 − 43.5 = 9.10
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 9.10 − (4.396) = 4.704
  4. Absolute miss = |4.704| = 4.704

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72224, race ID 6210 (538 database).