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2020 House · NC-9

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.41% · Republican 55.59%

R+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.408 − 55.592 = -11.184
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-11.184) = 9.184
  4. Absolute miss = |9.184| = 9.184

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72225, race ID 8127 (538 database).