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2020 Senate · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 40%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.64% · Republican 40.99%

D+15.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 40 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.637 − 40.988 = 15.649
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (15.649) = 1.351
  4. Absolute miss = |1.351| = 1.351

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72226, race ID 6286 (538 database).