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2020 Governor · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.36% · Republican 65.13%

R+31.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.361 − 65.125 = -31.764
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-31.764) = 26.764
  4. Absolute miss = |26.764| = 26.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 26.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72226, race ID 7822 (538 database).