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2020 President · TX

RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-5.579) = 1.579
  4. Absolute miss = |1.579| = 1.579

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72229, race ID 6254 (538 database).