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2020 Senate · TX

RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 48%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 48 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-9.639) = 3.639
  4. Absolute miss = |3.639| = 3.639

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72229, race ID 6295 (538 database).