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2020 Senate · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 864 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.64% · Republican 40.99%

D+15.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.637 − 40.988 = 15.649
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (15.649) = -4.649
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.649| = 4.649

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72230, race ID 6286 (538 database).