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2020 Governor · NH

Saint Anselm College Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 1,018 respondents · Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 60%

R+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.36% · Republican 65.13%

R+31.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 60 = -25.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.361 − 65.125 = -31.764
  3. Signed miss = -25.00 − (-31.764) = 6.764
  4. Absolute miss = |6.764| = 6.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72233, race ID 7822 (538 database).