2020 President · FL
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 1,148 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 47%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%
R+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-3.359) = 6.358
- Absolute miss = |6.358| = 6.358
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72235, race ID 6220 (538 database).