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2020 President · AL

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 266 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 37.2% · Republican 55.8%

R+18.6

The certified result

Democrat 36.57% · Republican 62.03%

R+25.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.2 − 55.8 = -18.60
  2. Actual margin = 36.570 − 62.032 = -25.462
  3. Signed miss = -18.60 − (-25.462) = 6.862
  4. Absolute miss = |6.862| = 6.862

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72295, race ID 6212 (538 database).