2020 Senate · AL
Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 232 respondents · Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 45.6% · Republican 54.4%
R+8.8
The certified result
Democrat 39.74% · Republican 60.09%
R+20.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45.6 − 54.4 = -8.80
- Actual margin = 39.737 − 60.095 = -20.358
- Signed miss = -8.80 − (-20.358) = 11.559
- Absolute miss = |11.559| = 11.559
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72295, race ID 6266 (538 database).