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2020 President · AZ

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 304 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 52.4% · Republican 43.8%

D+8.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.4 − 43.8 = 8.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 8.60 − (0.309) = 8.291
  4. Absolute miss = |8.291| = 8.291

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72296, race ID 6214 (538 database).