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2020 President · CA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 635 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 35.3%

D+26.7

The certified result

Democrat 63.48% · Republican 34.32%

D+29.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 35.3 = 26.70
  2. Actual margin = 63.484 − 34.321 = 29.163
  3. Signed miss = 26.70 − (29.163) = -2.463
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.463| = 2.463

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72297, race ID 6215 (538 database).