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2020 President · FL

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 605 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46.4% · Republican 50.6%

R+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.4 − 50.6 = -4.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = -4.20 − (-3.359) = -0.842
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.842| = 0.842

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72298, race ID 6220 (538 database).