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2020 Senate · GA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 342 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.8% · Republican 49.4%

R+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.8 − 49.4 = -1.60
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = -1.60 − (-1.779) = 0.179
  4. Absolute miss = |0.179| = 0.179

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72299, race ID 6271 (538 database).