2020 President · MI
Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 394 respondents · Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 58.6% · Republican 39.6%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58.6 − 39.6 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (2.784) = 16.216
- Absolute miss = |16.216| = 16.216
The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72302, race ID 6233 (538 database).