2020 Senate · MI
Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 365 respondents · Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 58.4% · Republican 41.6%
D+16.8
The certified result
Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%
D+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58.4 − 41.6 = 16.80
- Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
- Signed miss = 16.80 − (1.685) = 15.115
- Absolute miss = |15.115| = 15.115
The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72302, race ID 6280 (538 database).