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2020 Senate · NC

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 363 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49.7% · Republican 50.3%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.7 − 50.3 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (-1.747) = 1.147
  4. Absolute miss = |1.147| = 1.147

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72303, race ID 6284 (538 database).