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2020 Senate · NJ

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 363 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 39%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.23% · Republican 40.92%

D+16.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 39 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.228 − 40.921 = 16.307
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (16.307) = 5.692
  4. Absolute miss = |5.692| = 5.692

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72304, race ID 6287 (538 database).