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2020 President · PA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 491 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51.9% · Republican 46.1%

D+5.8

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.9 − 46.1 = 5.80
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = 5.80 − (1.164) = 4.635
  4. Absolute miss = |4.635| = 4.635

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72307, race ID 6249 (538 database).