Skip to content

2020 President · national

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2020-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 2,000 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.9% · Republican 42.5%

D+11.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.9 − 42.5 = 11.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 11.40 − (4.396) = 7.004
  4. Absolute miss = |7.004| = 7.004

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72313, race ID 6210 (538 database).