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2020 Governor · NC

East Carolina University Center for Survey Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 1,103 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54.31% · Republican 43.34%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.31 − 43.34 = 10.97
  2. Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
  3. Signed miss = 10.97 − (4.511) = 6.460
  4. Absolute miss = |6.460| = 6.460

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72332, race ID 7824 (538 database).