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2020 Senate · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 47.2%

D+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 47.2 = 0.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = 0.10 − (-1.779) = 1.879
  4. Absolute miss = |1.879| = 1.879

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72336, race ID 6271 (538 database).