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2020 President · PA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 1,076 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 48.4%

R+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 48.4 = -0.80
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = -0.80 − (1.164) = -1.965
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.965| = 1.965

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72337, race ID 6249 (538 database).