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2020 President · WI

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 1,082 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 47.1%

D+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 47.1 = 0.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 0.40 − (0.628) = -0.227
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.227| = 0.227

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72338, race ID 6259 (538 database).