2020 Senate · NM
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,180 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 44%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.73% · Republican 45.62%
D+6.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 51.730 − 45.624 = 6.106
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (6.106) = 1.895
- Absolute miss = |1.895| = 1.895
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72400, race ID 6288 (538 database).